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    Volume 3 Article List


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    February 1985

    Chart Congestion Analysis

    Hill examines common congestion areas (price levels at which neither the bulls nor bears are in complete control) such as the line congestion area and the small congestion area. Through recognizing these patterns, traders can anticipate reversals and the end of a move. By Holliston Hill; pages 13-18.

    Selling Stock With Investor Relations

    What can and should you expect from a firm's investor relations services? By Carolyn Kott Washburne; pages 19-21.

    Probability of Investment Ruin

    Kalt offers a method for determining how long you can last in a managed account before your specified percentage loss closes you out. The method presented can be used to quantify the characteristics of the trading systems being analyzed. By Sherwin Kalt; pages 22-25.

    Theft? Commodity Floor Brokers

    An insider's insights into shady practices that have become commonplace at the exchanges. By Allen D. Hanson; pages 26-27.

    Day Trading With Stochastics

    Kepka offers his modification of the "K" and "%D" stochastics oscillators to day-trade S&P futures. By John F. Kepka; pages 32-36.

    Stock Market Double-Header?

    Even in a bull market, some industry groups will eventually falter. Dunbar's Non-Carryover Hypothesis attempts to analyze the trends. By Bill Dunbar; pages 37-41.

    Software Review: EASI/ARIMA-The 2% Solution

    By John F. Kepka; pages 37-39.

    Book Review: The Investor's Almanac 1984-1985

    By John Sweeney; page 39.

    Book Review: A Complete Guide to the Futures Market

    By John Sweeney; pages 40-41.

    Newsletter Review: The Elliott Wave Theorist

    By John Sweeney; pages 41-42.

    April 1985

    Leading Indicators From Fourier Spectral Analysis

    Beginning with a discussion of the basic nature of cycles, Taylor explains how to interpret the results of spectral analysis. He explains in detail the detection and measurement of phase relationships of cyclical components from two or more time series. By William T. Taylor; pages 52-56.

    Writing Neutral Options Spreads

    A look at the "strangle," a neutral option strategy. By Stocks & Commodities Staff; pages 57-58.

    How Good Is The Dow Theory? Part 1

    A look at the basic premises of the Dow Theory. Also included are some hypotheses Dunbar thinks are essential in using Dow Theory effectively. By Bill Dunbar; pages 59-63.

    Median Line Market Analysis

    A rundown on the Median Line method of geometric technical analysis, also known as the Andrews line method. Beginning with the basic concept, French explains how to draw and use median lines. By Thomas E. French; pages 64-65.

    Novice Speculator Trading Plan

    Sweeney describes the step-by-step routine he followed as a new trader. By John Sweeney; pages 66-68.

    Stock Beta Coefficient

    An explanation of the concept of beta (a comparison between the movements of an individual stock or portfolio and the movements of the market as a whole) and how it relates to the valuation of portfolio risk. By Scott S. Silver and Gary M. Wingens; pages 72-73.

    Fibonacci Based Forecasts

    The Fibonacci mathematical number series can be used to forecast trends in futures. Emmett applies the Fibonacci series to Treasury bonds as an example. By Tucker J. Emmett; pages 77-78.

    Malfunctioning Computers: Who Pays?

    What can you do when your new computer is a lemon? Sherry describes the laws covering this area. By Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.; pages 81-82.

    Software Review: Chart Trader Plus

    By Herbert R. Sorock; page 87.

    June 1985

    Stock and Future Option Trading

    It's worth your while risk-wise to get acquainted with options trading. Here's an introduction. By Stocks & Commodities Staff; pages 95-99.

    How Good Is the Dow Theory? Part 2

    A continued look at the Dow Theory, its history and how it works. By Bill Dunbar

    A Trend-Following Method For All Seasons

    An updated trend-following method designed to correct some traditional weaknesses by establishing trend channel lines and using a moving average or filter to locate points outside the trend channels. By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.; pages 106-109.

    Product Review: Reuters Color Graphics Service

    By William T. Taylor; pages 110-111.

    Discount Stock Brokers

    It's worth your time to shop around for a discount broker. Here's what to look for. By Richard J. Maturi; pages 114-116.

    Software Review: Intra-Day Analyst

    By John F. Kepka; pages 117-120.

    Trading Liquidity: A Parameter for Technical Analysis

    This article explains trading liquidity and how it relates to the Gregg Corporation's data and calculations on trading activity featured in Stocks & Commodities magazine. By Scott J. Silver and Scott S. Levokove; pages121.

    Prediction by Index

    A look at the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators and how it can be used to anticipate recessions. By Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.; pages 122-124.

    August 1985

    Head and Shoulders: An Introduction to Reversal Patterns

    A primer in recognizing market reversals with head-and-shoulders formations. By Timothy A. Maguire; pages 131-134.

    Commodity Trading Risks

    The "rules" of recognizing and handling risk. By Allen D. Hanson; page 135-136

    Options Strategies: Overlooked Trading Opportunities

    Several good reasons why you should look into options trading. By David L. Caplan; pages 18-21.

    The Ultimate Oscillator

    Williams' modifications on the oscillator principle. By Larry Williams; pages 140-141.

    Trading With ARIMA Forecasts

    Kepka presents some insight into using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Averages on the S&P 500 index futures. By John F. Kepka; pages 142-144.

    Software Review: Cyber-Scan

    By Harry Schirding; pages

    October 1985

    Where to Put Your Stops

    Trading involves risk. But this instructive article tells you how to place protective trading stops to limit possible losses. By John Sweeney; pages 157-158.

    Facelift for an Old Favorite

    Morris re-examines Wilder's Relative Strength Index and offers adjustments to make the popular indicator more useful. He uses an exponential moving average to give recent data more weight in the calculation. By Gregory L. Morris; pages 159-161.

    Data Smoothing Using a Kalman Filter

    An introduction to the use of the Kalman filtering process to smooth data and reduce data "noise." Includes equations and a computer routine to use for filtering data. By Vince Banes; pages 162-165.

    Software Review: CompuChart

    By John Sweeney; page 166.

    Gambler's Paradox

    Are prices random or predictable? Statistical computations (primarily the chi-square statistic) can be used to determine whether or not the action of prices is random and/or independent. By Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.; pages 168-170.

    Riding to Profits with "Irv the Liquidator"

    Maturi uses the example of Irwin Jacobs to show opportunities for trading based on acquisitions and mergers. Includes information on convertible bonds, timing of trades, and the conversion equivalent. By Richard J. Maturi; pages 172-175.

    Gann Lines and Angles

    An introduction to the concepts of Gann including Gann lines, angles, pivot points, support and resistance. Also includes graphic illustrations of these concepts and examples using actual data (pork bellies, British pounds, KC ValueLine). By Robert Pardo; pages 177-182.

    Computerized Stock Market Trading

    With the increasing number of large funds and institutional investors in the market, is everyone following the same indicators with the same systems? If you think so, take a look at Patricoff's "Game Theory." By Henry S. Patricoff

    Product Announcement: Tradeplan Mitronix IIc

    By John Sweeney; page 188.

    November 1985

    Step Up to the Window

    An insider's view of ways in which exchanges can exert control to maintain a stable market. Hanson also explores the possibility of the trading 'window' (the exchange) closing and the effects of such an action on traders. By Allen D. Hanson; pages 194-195.

    Trading with ARIMA and Stochastics

    Kepka combines AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Averages from daily data, stochastics and S&P 500 futures data to demonstrate the use of these techniques. This follow-up article enlarges on previous articles presenting ARIMA and stochastic techniques and offers examples of their use on real data. By John F. Kepka; pages 196-199.

    Discount Broker Blues Part 1

    These lessons learned by a novice trader can help other new traders avoid the pitfalls of using a discount broker without the proper knowledge of the rules of the market. By Dan Weinberg; pages 201-203.

    Reading Between the Lines

    An introduction to oscillators that includes how to create them, use them and choose appropriate moving average time periods to anticipate price reversals. By John Navarte; pages 204-206.

    Covered Calls

    A basic guide to writing and using call options. By Richard J. Maturi; page 207.

    Product Review: Mitronix IIc

    By John Sweeney; page 208.

    A Simple Analogue of Auto- and Cross-Correlation

    Auto- and cross-correlation statistical techniques can be used to determine the interdependency of time series data. Includes methods of determining correlation using chi-square statistics. By Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.; pages 213-215.

    Product Review: N-Squared Stock Analyzer

    By John F. Kepka; pages 216-217.

    A Modification of Wilder's Directional Movement System

    Welles Wilder's Directional Movement Indicator is modified to allow a variation of the time period used for the calculations. Also included are the results of research conducted using the modified Directional Movement System on real data. By Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille; pages 218-221.

    Benguet Revisited

    A re-evaluation of gold stock trading strategy. By Richard J. Maturi; pages 222-225.

    U.S. Trading Championship

    A listing of leaders in the U.S. Trading Championship competition. By Norm Zadeh; page 226.

    December 1985

    Sound Off: A Case for Rising Energy Prices

    An example of the thinking behind taking an actual position, in this case in energy instruments. A CTA and CPO looks at oil prices and makes a prediction based on both technical and fundamental factors. By Joseph Holleman; pages 233-234.

    Profitability of Selected Technical Indicators

    An examination of several technical indicators including Relative Strength, moving averages, oscillators and Williams' %R. Includes comparative research results based upon the indicators listed above to determine their profitability. By Thomas P. Drinka, Steven L. Kille and Eugene R. Mueller; pages 235-239.

    Discount Broker Blues Part 2

    A continuation of Weinberg's experiences as a novice stock trader. By Dan Weinberg; pages 240-241.

    Understanding Cycles

    An introduction to the use of cycle analysis to determine profitable investment strategies. Also includes a computer program designed to develop a trading system based on cycle analysis. By John F. Ehlers; pages 242-246.

    Technical Analysis of NYSI/DJI

    How to construct advance-decline lines to track the movement of markets with the New York Stock Index and the Dow Jones Industrials. The author details how to plot the data and use it to determine positioning for trades. By Howard Waxenberg; pages 247-250.

    A Trend-Following Method for All Seasons Part 2

    A follow-up article which provides a BASIC computer program implementing the alpha-beta trend-following method as outlined in an earlier article. Mathematical foundations for the method are provided as well as graphic examples showing the method's output using actual data. By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.; pages 252-255.

    Product Review: Financial Futures Chart Service

    By John Sweeney; page

    Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Trading Psychology

    A review of several books dealing with trading psychology. By Fred S. Gehm; pages 257-258.

    Book Review: The Handbook of Commodity Spreads

    By John Sweeney; pages 42-43.


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