VOLUME 16 ARTICLE LIST 

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JANUARY 1998

STATISTICS
Profiting From The Z-Score
What is the Z-score? You can use it to identify the types of winning and losing streaks in a trading system. Once the nature of the streaks are determined, then you can use different money management approaches to maximize profitability. By Mike DeAmicis-Roberts

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Dynamic Asset Allocation Beyond Buy-And-Hold
Even during the strongest of bull markets, not every investment rises at the same rate. This range of performance among different investments has led to money managers developing strategies to dynamically allocate among a choice of investments. Here, a money manager explains his recent research into this subject. By Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D.

NOVICE TRADER
Double Tops
It takes more than twin peaks to make a double top. Here's a refresher on the formation. By Thomas Bulkowski

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
The Happy Trader
What does happiness have to do with being a successful trader? Nothing, it seems. In fact, for most traders, successful trading and happiness may actually be in perpetual conflict. By Adrienne Laris Toghraie

INDICATORS
Smoothing Techniques For More Accurate Signals
More sophisticated smoothing techniques can be used to determine market trend. Better trend recognition can lead to more accurate trading signals. Here's how. By Tim Tillson

NEW TECHNIQUES
Pattern Recognition In Time Series
Here's how to use a spreadsheet as a pattern recognition tool. The spreadsheet can be used to identify the cup-and-handle formation on daily closing prices over a given number of days. By Rick Martinelli

INTERVIEW
On Synergy And Strategy: Tom Bierovic Of Synergy Futures
Thomas Bierovic is president of Synergy Futures, a research, trading, and education company. He also writes Synergy Fax, a daily advisory service for futures traders, and he wrote the well-regarded trading manual A Synergetic Approach to Profitable Trading. His specialty involves "synergizing" a variety of trend-following indicators, directional-movement indicators, momentum oscillators, Fibonacci retracements, and chart patterns to create low-risk/high-reward trading methods. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Bierovic on October 24, 1997, via telephone to talk about his approaches. By Thom Hartle

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Breaking Out Of Price Channels
Here's a technique based on Tushar Chande's variable-length moving average. The indicator is more responsive to market price movements than a conventional simple or exponential moving average and can be used for position trading. Take a look. By Gerald Marisch

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Wall Street Investor, ver 4.0.8 (Comstar Concepts Inc.)
- Enhancing Portfolio Value with Covered Call Options (Investment Enhancing Systems, Inc.)
- The Art Of Short Selling (Kathryn F. Staley)
- MetaStock ver 6.5 (Equis International) Jeronimo J2 (Appian Graphics)

FEBRUARY 1998

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Metaphors For Trading
The metaphors we use in our lives can be powerful emotional symbols, and how we view the market is reflected in those metaphors. Change those metaphors and develop a more successful attitude. Here's how. By Ruth Barrons Roosevelt

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Using Multiple Moving Averages
Moving averages, familiar to every technical trader, are used by most technicians to identify important trends. Here's a unique twist on using multiple moving averages as an early warning of trend reversals. By Daryl Guppy

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Exits, Stops And Strategy
Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Here are different techniques for making a graceful -- and profitable -- exit. By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
The New Gann Swing Chartist
This is more than an article that teaches technical analysis. It's also a story about how one professional trader, a New Market Wizard, came into possession of a rare technical method, and the steps he took to turn it into a valid trading plan. Here, then, is Robert Krausz's Basic trading plan, one of four published in his book, A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered. By Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE

INTERVIEW
Keys To Successful Trading: Charles White Of Tucson Asset Management
Charles White's career has ranged broadly from fixed-income portfolio manager to Commodity Trading Advisor. Today, as one of the three principals of Tucson Asset Management, White is doing it all as he advises institutional fixed-income managers as well as maintaining three managed-futures programs, with approximately $50 million under management. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed White via telephone on November 18, 1997, asking him about issues that are key to developing trading systems as well as what investors should look for when deciding on a CTA. By Thom Hartle

INDICATORS
Anchored Momentum
A centered simple moving average can be used as a reference point when creating technical analysis indicators. Even though a centered simple moving average produces a plot much smoother than its related price plot, the centered moving average technique is generally ignored because it stops short by half of its period. However, some unique and effective momentum indicators can be anchored to a point on a centered simple moving average. Here are the benefits of anchored momentum. By Rudy Stefenel

NOVICE TRADER
Double Bottoms
The mirror image of a double top, the double bottom is a more profitable longer-term play. Find out why. By Thomas Bulkowski

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Sharpen Your Trading Skills video (John Bollinger)
- The Essex Option Trading Seminar video (Essex Trading Co., Ltd.)

MARCH 1998

STATISTICS
How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself?
Here's a statistical view of the stock market using the Standard & Poor's 500 as the basis for analysis, and a collection of fundamental influences. By Gordon W. Neal

INDICATORS
Combining Gann's 50% Rule With VIDYA
Sometimes, the most puzzling of trading questions can be answered with the simplest of technical methods. Here, two such methods are combined for trading: Tushar Chande's variable indexed dynamic average (VIDYA), a moving average that automatically adjusts to the current market's volatility and is used as a trend indicator, and a classic rule of thumb from early-day trader W.D. Gann known as the 50% rule is added. By Gerald Marisch

NOVICE TRADER
Using Relative P/E Ratios And Technical Analysis
Here's why you should track both fundamentals and technicals for trading stocks. By Peter Desnoyers

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Testing Exit Strategies
Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Last time, Katz and McCormick looked at different techniques for making a graceful -- and profitable -- exit. This time, they're testing various exit strategies, both separately and in combination, to determine how well they can improve a trading system. By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

NOVICE TRADER
Improving The Win-Loss Ratio With The Relative Strength Index
Here's a refresher on the relative strength index, and how to improve your win-loss ratio. By Thomas Bulkowski

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Creating Prosperity
Can you create prosperity by sharing resources? Take a look. By Adrienne Laris Toghraie

INTERVIEW
Trading And Control: Walter Bressert
For commodity and futures traders, the technique of using cycles as a trading strategy will undoubtedly bring to mind trader and analyst Walter Bressert. Bressert, who has been in the trading industry for nearly 30 years, was the publisher and editor of the well-regarded newsletter HAL Commodity Cycles for 12 years. In addition, he wrote The Power Of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations and is today the president of The Bressert Group. His work and techniques are now available in the Cycle Trader software. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke to Bressert via telephone on December 22, 1997, about trading, being in control, cycles, oscillators and the 12 cardinal mistakes that traders make. By Thom Hartle

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Alternative Investments For Volatile Times
The stock market isn't the only asset class available to qualified investors; for example, there are managed futures and hedge funds. Here's an overview of the hedge fund industry, as well as recent performance tables. By Gary Spitz

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Channel Trend (Channel Trend, Inc.)
- Option Wizard with backtest (Option Wizard, Inc.)
- Option Advisor (Bernie Schaeffer)
- Platt's Analytics Service (Standard & Poor's/Platt's)

APRIL 1998

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Zero Cost Averaging
This technique steps in to assist in the management of the investment after the investor has determined which securities to purchase and when to open the position. By Terrence M. Quinn and Kristin A. Quinn

SYSTEM DESIGN
The German Mark Noise Channel Breakout System
Interested in a trend-following method for currency markets? Currency markets generally exhibit the strongest tendency to trend, a key feature for trend-followers. Here's a method that's both simple and effective to take advantage of that. Presented here are the rules and steps to develop a trend-following method for currencies. By Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.

INDICATORS
Identifying Market Trends
The trend of the market is key to most every technical approach available. But the market doesn't always trend. Here's how to use a statistical tool for determining if the market is in a trend. By Jack Karczewski

NOVICE TRADER
Applying Moving Averages
The moving average, one of the first technical methods that novice traders study, can be applied to your favorite markets. Here are its strengths and weaknesses. By John Sweeney

NEW TECHNIQUES
What Is Risk?
There are many ways to view risk. Some measurements treat risk and reward alike; if a stock is outperforming the market to the upside, there is an implicit expectation that the stock may also outperform the market to the downside. This article introduces the concept of comparing how a stock performs during up movements relative to a benchmark and then, separately, measuring performance relative to downward movements by the benchmark. By Gary Anderson

INTERVIEW
Technical Analysis As A Statistical Process: Asoka Selvarajah Of Rabobank International
According to Asoka Selvarajah, markets do make sense ultimately, but not in a way that most people imagine. To understand the markets, according to Selvarajah, requires a dash of Pythagorean theory, a smidgen of Newtonian physics, and even some chaos. Selvarajah, who works for Rabobank International, one of the largest banks in the world and one of the few European banks with a triple-A rating, was interviewed by STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle via E-mail over a period of several weeks in January 1998, discussing systematic trading and development as well as trading overseas markets. By Thom Hartle

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Using Trailing Stops In Exit Strategies
Last issue, we saw a demonstration of how an exit strategy can affect the performance of a trading system. This time, we will discover how to measure the impact of exiting the market by using trailing-stop techniques. By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Martin Pring's Introduction to Technical Analysis on CD-ROM (International Institute of Economic Research)
- Option Tutor ver 2.0 (Financial Trading System) Spec-Trader+ ver 1.0 (Cavlogix Corporation)
- John Murphy Explains Market Analysis, Volume 1: Visual Analysis on CD-ROM or VHS video (MurphyMorris, Inc.)
- The Ultimate Book On Stock Market Timing, Volume 1: Cycles And Patterns In The Indexes (Raymond A. Merriman)
- Hit And Run Trading, The Short Term Traders' Bible (Jeff Cooper)

MAY 1998

NEW TECHNIQUES
Surfing The Linear Regression Curve With Bond Futures
Linear regression, a statistical technique that fits a straight line to data points, can also be a proxy for a market trend. Here's a trading system that uses the measured percentage change of the trend of the Treasury bond market. By Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.

BASIC TECHNIQUES
A 10-Year Overview Of Market Sentiment
Crowd psychology plays a role in the development of market tops and bottoms. In theory, a bottom forms when the majority of investors are extremely pessimistic, and a top occurs when the investors are uniformly bullish. Here's a review of the past performance of a collection of indicators used to measure investor sentiment. By Joe Duarte, M.D.

NEW TECHNIQUES
Automated Support And Resistance
Support and resistance analysis is a proven method for selecting key price levels for trading decisions; traders usually perform the analysis by hand. The automatic charting method and new oscillators presented here are easy to implement and give a precise comparison of price to these important levels. By Mel Widner, Ph.D.

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Using Barrier Stops In Exit Strategies
A simple technical method for exiting a trade is the break of a trendline on a chart. This article measures the performance of using this strategy as an exit rule. By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

INTERVIEW
About Managed Futures And Commodity Trading Advisors: Gary Spitz
Gary Spitz, principal of CTA Research Corp., recognized early on the value of professional money managers in the futures markets as an asset class for investors. Further research led him to develop an index to track the performance of Commodity Trading Advisors in ways that reveal those managers who are consistent performers. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Spitz via telephone on February 19, 1998, about his views on what investors should look for when considering this asset class. By Thom Hartle

NOVICE TRADER
Volatility Of Returns
Designing a profitable trading system is key, but the way that profits and losses vary can have an impact on your long-term success. Here's why looking at how the returns deviate can help you design your own system. By John Sweeney

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
Matching Money Management With Trade Risk
Manage your trades using technical analysis by identifying risk points as well as setting profit objectives. This Australia-based author shares some of his favorite techniques. By Daryl Guppy

NEW TECHNIQUES
The Phase Method: 1998
Here's a unique technique to understand the cycles prevalent in the markets. By Christopher L. Cagan, Ph.D.

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Marlet Center Platinum Edition (Data Broadcasting Corporation)
- WinMidas, ver 2.1 (Stokes Fishburne Associates)
- Expert Design Studio for AIQ Trading Expert (AIQ Systems)

JUNE 1998

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Trading And The Senses
Successful trading requires a mind balanced between intellect and intuition. Here are some ideas toward developing a balanced mental approach to trading. By Adrienne Laris Toghraie

SYSTEM DESIGN
On System Development, Part 1
Here's one for the first-time developer of a trading system, or someone who's thinking about developing a system. Here are the basic steps this author took to develop a system for the stock market. By Mark Vakkur, M.D.

NEW TECHNIQUES
Mutated Variables, Volatility And A New Market Paradigm
Markets move through phases during which volatility fluctuates. Here's how to measure the shifts in volatility and then use that data as a filter for a trading system. By Walter T. Downs, Ph.D.

MARKET TIMING
Trading Monthly Eurodollars
Traders tend to be more interested in trading short time frames than long ones, but a longer one can be of value as well. Here's a simple technical system based on monthly Eurodollar charts for entry and exit signals. By Scott W. Barrie

INTERVIEW
Before And Beyond Technology: Michael Sheimo On Dow Theory
Take a look around: Technology is changing the face of trading and investing before your very eyes. Computers, information acquisition and trading are all getting faster and faster, sometimes at breath-taking speeds. The world of tomorrow is here today, in the form of technology. Is there still room for the classic approaches, such as Dow theory? To find out, STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Michael Sheimo, author of Cashing In On The Dow, Stock Market Rules, and Dow Theory Redux, by phone on March 24, 1998. Here's what this noted author had to say about using this classic technique today. By Thom Hartle

NOVICE TRADER
Trading Ranges With Moving Averages
Using simple moving averages may seem like a straightforward approach to trading, but there are subtle techniques that can improve performance. By John Sweeney

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered (Robert Krausz, MH, BCHE)
- ProTA, ver 2.11 (BeeSoft)
- Indigo (MicroStar Research & Trading, Inc.)
- DTN Chameleon (Data Transmission Network)
- Window on Wallstreet Day Trader (Window On WallStreet)

JULY 1998

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
Channel Analysis
A market does not move in a straight line; instead, its movement travels across the chart in peaks and valleys, forming a channel in the direction of the trend. Early identification of the channels can give you important information, including that the trend has changed direction, what the profit objectives are and risk points. By Thom Hartle

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Secure Fractional Money Management
Here's how to find a new fractional value of capital to invest in every trade to maximize returns subject to a constraint on drawdown, using a variation of the optimal money management strategy. By Leo J. Zamansky, Ph.D., and David C. Stendahl

MONEY MANAGEMENT
Barrier Stops And Trendlines
Last time, Katz and McCormick measured the performance of using this strategy as an exit rule. This time, we examine the effect of eliminating entries that would have been taken in instances where the trendline stop was farther than $1,250 away from the entry price. By Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

SYSTEM DESIGN
On System Development, Part 2
Last month, this author introduced the initial steps that someone, novice or veteran, should take when developing a stock market system. This time, he explains the final steps. By Mark Vakkur, M.D.

INTERVIEW
Truth In Futures: John Hill
John Hill started out in the business of trading commodities in a most remarkable way when he managed to run $1,000 up to $80,000 in a matter of three months -- and then managed to lose all but $5,000 in a single day. Some traders would hang up their charts after that, but Hill was determined to understand what he'd done wrong. It took years of study, but he figured it out. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Hill via telephone on April 23, 1998, asking him about Futures Truth, the publication he has produced since the 1970s; why novices could benefit from mechanical systems; and what details are important to fairly evaluate the performance of a system. By Thom Hartle

REAL WORLD
A Volatility Trade In Gold
Large moves often follow low-volatility environments. Here's one method of combining volatility indicators and pattern recognition along with trend-following methods to capture a breakout in the 1997 gold futures market. By David S. Landry

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Predict The Market With Earnings Per Share
Take a look at the relationship between changes in earnings per share for each year and the performance of the market for the following year. Is there a correlation? By Randall J. Covill

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
Triangles
Stock prices tend to move in trends. When an existing trend ends, a classic technical pattern known as a triangle often develops. Here's how to make use of this pattern in the stock market. By David Vomund

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS LIFFE
- Data ver 1.0 with LIFFEstyle Software (Concept House)
- BOLT 3.01 (The Bressert Group)
 

AUGUST 1998


NOVICE TRADER
Basic Options Techniques
Many stock traders and investors avoid options because they seem too complex or risky. Although it is very easy to lose large amounts of money in a very short time misusing options, investors and traders of all kinds should at least consider them as one of many tools to exploit market opportunities. Here's a primer on using options, with common terms and applications of options strategies. By Mark Vakkur, M.D.

NEW TECHNIQUES
Daytrading Stocks
Many traders in the stock market are moving to short-term approaches and taking advantage of today's technology. Here's a walk through the basics. By Mark Conway

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Statistics And Trading Behavior
Use statistics to profile patterns of trading behavior as part of an ongoing training program to help traders maximize their performance. By Ari Kiev and Ken Grant

SYSTEM DESIGN
From Technical Terms To Technical Tools: Building Studies Based On Psychological Matrices
Here's how the psychological terms that technicians employ to describe the markets are transformed into technical tools. By Walter T. Downs

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
A Duration Proxy For Stock Portfolios
Duration, used in fixed-income portfolios to measure risk associated with changes in interest rates, is applied here to measure the risk of a stock portfolio. By George R. Arrington, Ph.D.

INTERVIEW
On The Bull Market Of the Century: Louise Yamada
The bull market of the end of the 20th century has been going on for some time now. How did this happen, and how much longer is it going to last? To get some answers, we turned to Louise Yamada of Salomon Smith Barney, whose recent book, Market Magic: Riding The Greatest Bull Market Of The Century, shed some light on the situation. Yamada, who is senior technical analyst and director of research at Salomon Smith Barney, is responsible for sector analysis of the US and global markets. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle talked to Yamada via phone on May 26, 1998, asking her what her long-term views are for the stock market, inflation and interest rates. By Thom Hartle

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- TechniFilter Plus, ver 8.1 for Windows 95.NT (RTR Software)
- BioCom Profit (BioComp Systems Inc.)
- Visual System Designer ver 3.001 (Digital Enterprises, Ltd.)
- PowerAnalyzer from EzTrade (INO Global Markets)
 

SEPTEMBER 1998


STATISTICS
Using Percentage-Based Back-Adjusted Data
A continuous data series for remodeling a futures trading system can be created in a number of ways. Here's a new method that uses a percentage-based back-adjusted technique to ensure that profits and losses from a trading system are equivalent over time on a percentage basis. By Enrico Donner, Ph.D.

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
The Path Less Traded
Good trading is as much a state of mind as it is a set of procedures. By Scott Brown
Sidebar: Mindtraps

NOVICE TRADER
Trading The Trend
Here's a volatility indicator, presented with simple trend rules for trading various markets. By Andrew Abraham

SYSTEM DESIGN
The Bond Futures Noise Channel-2 Breakout System
Here's how to develop a system using a filter to remove the random price movement and identify the trend of the Treasury bond market. By Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Sidebar: Entry and exit rules

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Moving Averages With Resistance And Support
Moving averages are a popular way to signal trends. Combine moving averages and the classic chart analysis of support and resistance for trading mutual funds. By Dennis L. Tilley

INTERVIEW
On A New Academic Paradigm: Henry Pruden Of Golden State University
Henry Pruden, who heads up Golden Gate University's Institute of Technical Market Analysis, mixes the classic technical methods with the new and promising ones. S&C spoke with him to find out what he has to say about technical analysis making inroads on respectability in academia. By Thom Hartle
Sidebar: A technical bottom
Sidebar: Buying and selling tests

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- VirtualTrader for TradeStation, ver 2.0 (Titan Trading Analytics)
- PC Quote for Windows, ver 6.0 (PC Quote Inc.)
- SMARTrader for Windows, ver 2.5 (Stratagem Software International)
- CQG for Windows, ver 2.414 (CQG Inc.)
 

OCTOBER 1998


BASIC TECHNIQUES
The Next Discount Rate Change
Here's a review of the changes in the discount rate, and the implications for investors. By Steven M. Morris

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
Long-Term Fibonacci Support And Resistance
Here's a historical review of the major swings in the stock market and the Fibonacci relationships. By Kevin W. Murphy

REAL WORLD
Uncovering Value In An Oversold Stock
This trader walks us through one of her trades, detailing the indicators she used and the decisions she made. By Tamalyn V. Crutchfield

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Combining Statistical And Pattern Analysis
Patterns are one of the oldest forms of technical analysis. Yet, because patterns can often be subjective, few of us take the time to combine statistical information with this type of market analysis. By Walter T. Downs
Sidebar: Symmetry variance
Sidebar: Optimization
Sidebar: TradeStation code

CLASSIC TECHNIQUES
Cup-with-Handle And The Computerized Approach
The cup-with-handle is a chart pattern that identifies stocks preparing for uptrends. Here are the steps to convert this pattern to a set of rules for screening your stock database to identify likely candidates. By Rick Martinelli and Barry Hyman

INTERVIEW
The Power Of Knowledge: James O'Shaughessy
Money manager and author James O'Shaughnessy is best known for the astute research presented in his books. We spoke to him about what the individual investor should focus on. By Thom Hartle

INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
Is Gold Still A Barometer?
Is the gold market still an indicator of other trends? Here's a look at the past relationships of gold to the dollar, the Consumer Price Index and the CRB. By Alex Saitta

REAL WORLD
Flexible Market Forecast
It is important to be flexible in your market forecasts, as this walk through some recent trends in various markets indicate. By Michael Kahn

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- MarkeTrack 98 (Track Data Corp.)
- Dual Thrust System (Universal Technical Systems)
- GlobalView in the Energy Markets (GlobalView Software Inc.)
- Quotes Plus (Quotes Plus Inc.)
- OptionVue 5 (OptionVue Systems International)
- Trading In The Zone (Mark Douglas)
 

NOVEMBER 1998


NEW TECHNIQUES
The British Pound, Cubed
Currency markets are popular with trend-followers because of the tendency for currency markets to follow long-term trends. Here's how to smooth out the trend and recognize the major turns. By Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.
Sidebar: Using Excel for a cubic polynomial

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Mechanical Trading System And The Art Of Positive Slippage
Traders following mechanical systems can see situations that may affect mechanically based signals. Here's how to include technical signals outside your basic trading signal. By Marcello Cattaneo Adorno

BASIC TECHNIQUES
Reversal Formations: Predictive Power?
Do classic chart formations such as the head-and-shoulders or the double-bottom/double-top hold up to close scrutiny? Here's a look. By Alex Saitta

TRADING TECHNIQUES
Combining Patterns With Indicators
Combining a technical indicator with another technical method can be the start of a viable trading system. Here's how to combine a technical indicator with a chart pattern to form one. By William Q. Smith
Sidebar: Exponential moving averages

MARKET TIMING
Seasonal Stock Index Trades
Here are different seasonal strategies for trading the Value Line Index compared with the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Standard and Poor's 500. By James Greenwood

TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Midlife Trading
Perhaps you've reached a point of success in your trading when suddenly you lose interest. Why? By Adrienne Laris Toghraie

INTERVIEW
Be Rich Or Be Right? CTCR's Courtney Smith
Trader Courtney Smith has added publisher and editor of Commodity Traders Consumer Report to his long list of accomplishments. S&C spoke with him on why traders lose and how to change that. By Thom Hartle

INDICATORS
Enhancing The Raff Regression Channel
A market follows its primary trend in a zigzag form. The trend direction is easy to see; the real challenge lies in identifying the minor trends. By Robert B. McKinnon

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- Meyers Short Term Systems and Indicators, ver 1.5 (Meyers Analytic, LLC)
- TeleChart 2000, ver 4.0 for Windows, (Worden Brothers, Inc.)
- OmniTrader 3.5, (Nirvana Systems, Inc.)
- NeuroShell Trader (Ward Systems Group, Inc.)
- OptionTrader 98 Professional Edition (AustinSoft Inc.)
 

DECEMBER 1998


MONEY MANAGEMENT
Measuring Risk
There are two common ways to measure performance: the standard deviation of returns and the Sharpe ratio. Here's a third way. By Dick Stoken

OPTIONS
Using Normal Distribution For Writing Options
How can you go about selecting the best strike price for writing an option? By Mark Vakkur, M.D.

NEW TECHNIQUES
The Yen, Recursed
Combine the exponential moving average with a trend estimate to identify changes in the direction of the market. By Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.

NOVICE TRADER
Plotting Trendlines
Drawing trendlines may seem simple, but there is a right way and a wrong way to plotting trendlines. By Stuart Evens

STATISTICS
The Volatility Edge
Designing a profitable trading system is key, but the way that profits and losses vary can have an impact on your long-term success. By John Sweeney

INTERVIEW
The Global Trend: Mark Boucher
When S&C first spoke to hedge fund manager Mark Boucher in 1996, he shared some of his techniques for analyzing the economy, picking stocks, and money management. See what he says this time. By Thom Hartle

NOVICE TRADER
Trends And Moving Averages
How do you choose which length and type of moving average to use for chart analysis? Take a look. By Robert Nikifork

INDICATORS
The MACD Profit Alert
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is a momentum indicator, and here, it's combined with pattern recognition to help you identify exit points for your system. By Barbara Star, Ph.D.

QUICK-SCANS, REVIEWS
- MetaStock Professional for Signal and BMI (Equis International)
- Bollinger Group Power (AIQ Systems)
- The Four Biggest Mistakes In Option Trading (Jay Kaeppel)