INTERVIEW
Shanghai Surprise
Trading Trends With Helene Meisler Of TheStreet.com
by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
If you've ever traded the overseas markets, you know how confusing
the time difference can be. Now imagine being on the other end of the time
difference. Technician Helene Meisler of TheStreet.com, who spent more
than a decade covering institutional accounts at various investment banks
in New York, including Cowen & Co. and Goldman Sachs, as well as managing
equity money for three years at Cargill Inc. in Minneapolis, lives and
trades from Shanghai. Yes, as in China. STOCKS & COMMODITIES Editor
Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan conducted this interview online with Helene Meisler
on April 5, 2004.
My mentor looked at the charts and the indicators, but he also spent a lot of time on market psychology. ... I thought that was an interesting way to look at the markets, so I began to focus on that aspect too.
How did you first get interested in technical analysis?
In 1984 I was working at Cowen & Co. when technician Justin Mamis
joined the firm. Mamis had been using technical analysis since the 1950s,
and I found that I enjoyed his viewpoint. Eventually, I began working with
him, and he became my mentor in this business. He looked at the charts
and the indicators, but he also spent a lot of time on market psychology.
And not just the sentiment indicators, but also the thought process behind
why folks do what they do in the markets and how that translates into the
charts and price action. I thought that was an interesting way to look
at the markets, so I began to focus on that aspect too.
What were you doing at Cowen & Co.?
I started there in 1982 as an institutional sales assistant. The business
was very different back then. The big institutions were mostly banks and
pension funds; mutual funds were still a much smaller part of the business.
Remember that 401(K)s only came into existence in the early 1980s. Most
of the calls we made to clients were to give them earnings estimate changes,
and I found that quite boring. So the prospect of working with Mamis seemed
exciting.
What did you found so interesting?
Well, he looked at the market statistics, which really was my first
area of interest. I began following them as soon as we started working
together, and started building spreadsheets and just kept adding -- and
deleting! -- statistics along the way. I also am a bit of a dinosaur in
that I still hand-post about 200 daily stock charts: John Magee's semi-log
charts.
Yes, I recall reading about that. So do you not use any charting
software?
Software? No, I don't think I would call it software. When I want to
view a chart that I don't keep -- and there are lots of those! -- I use
BigCharts.com, since I think it's one of the best -- and free -- chart
providers out there.
So when you say "market statistics," what type of data do you look
at?
Of course I look at the advance/decline line (A/D), which is so skewed
these days from all those "non-stock" stocks (preferreds and closed-end
funds) and all the penny stock moves. But I also use A/D figures that have
been calculated using common stocks only -- no foreign stocks and no real
estate investment trusts [Reits]. Also, they must move at least 12 cents
on the day to be up or down, which makes them like the old-fashioned statistics
we grew up on.
Along with that, I watch the new highs and new lows. I use the ones
the exchanges publish, but I also use the common stock-only figures to
see if they say something. I like sentiment indicators as well.
...Continued in the June 2004 issue of Technical Analysis of STOCKS
& COMMODITIES
Excerpted from an article originally published in the June 2004 issue
of Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine. All rights
reserved. © Copyright 2004, Technical Analysis, Inc.
